File under: Different jackal bites man

Three different people, all of them Israeli, have taken the trouble to point out that it was the Islamic Jihad that took responsibility for the recent rocket attacks on Israeli civilians. It is possible from reading the previous entry of this blog to mistakenly assume that it was Hamas that launched the rockets.  It was not, let that be clear.

It doesn't make the least bit of difference.

It is important not to fall for the trick that the fact that it was Islamic Jihad somehow absolves Hamas of culpability, it doesn't. Hamas rules Gaza, they are responsible for what happens there. There's a reason that Hamas hasn't held democratic elections in Gaza and it all goes to the same point. They rule by force and fear, and they simply did not exercise that force to cow Islamic Jihad into behaving like civilized human beings.

So the whole convoluted 'logic' of this situation is as follows:

1. Israel releases prisoners after reaching an agreement with Hamas;
2. The exchange strengthens Hamas at the expense of the Palestinian Authority and Islamic Jihad.
3. Islamic Jihad, feeling their masculinity threatened, come to the conclusion that they must do something to enhance their street cred; and what better way is there to show how courageous, valiant, gallant, and noble they are than to shoot rockets at civilians?
4. Hamas quite obviously doesn't feel obligated to prevent such attacks and pretty much allows Islamic Jihad to do as it pleases, as long as it's directed at Israelis.
5. Palestinians from Gaza shoot rockets at Israeli civilian populations resulting in dead, wounded, and quite a bit of damage.

Put another way, Islamic Jihad and Hamas are in a contest to see who has got the biggest... rocket launcher, and the way to keep score is by dead and wounded Israelis.

Mmmmh, that makes perfect sense, don't it?

File under: Jackal bites man

Over a thousand Palestinians convicted of terrorism were released just a few days ago in return for Gilad Shalit. Last night rockets were fired at Israeli population centers in the south of the country killing one and wounding several. (link)

There is a logical fallacy that goes by the Latin name of "cum hoc, ergo propter hoc." Or in simpler words, correlation does not imply causality.  This is all to say that I shouldn't jump to conclusions just because the attack on civilians in Israel closely followed the release of the Palestinian convicts. I really shouldn't, but it's hard not to.

One would think that releasing over one thousand prisoners would qualify in anyone's mind as a "confidence building gesture."  A gesture that maybe would inspire the Hamas leadership to seek some sort of understanding with Israel. Apparently not.

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In related news: the sun will set tonight in the west and rise tomorrow morning in the east.